Beyond the Turing Test: The Artificial Consciousness Challenge - Prof. Ronjon Nag (Stanford)

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Hi Ron John, thanks so much for joining us today.

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It's so nice to be here Let's start with Maybe

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a simple but difficult to answer question is

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how do you define reality? In my perspective

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our reality is more a subjective Interface and

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we're limited by our five senses and how we perceive

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reality Tell me a bit more about how you define

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reality. How do humans play into that? And with

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the advent of AI, how is a reality changing?

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Yeah, so I'm an engineer. I'm sort of a pragmatist.

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And, you know, so I'm probably less on the spiritual

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side, probably. But so I would sort of define

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reality is um you know often there's a phrase

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uh perception is reality people perceive it it

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is real right and sometimes people are in denial

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of a particular thing but uh other people are

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perceiving things you have to realize that so

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reality is the physical world uh reality might

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be something you are projecting And if other

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people are perceiving it, then that is part of

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the reality universe that you are part of. Now,

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there are realities in the mind, certainly time

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travel. How do you do time travel? Well, you

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go to sleep. So when you're asleep, it's a different

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reality. We've all sort of gone to sleep and

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woken up and thought, oh, I've just woken up.

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I've only been asleep 10 minutes. Without you,

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I've been asleep eight hours. There's sort of

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time compression to be able to do things. So

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part of it is the living reality, awake reality.

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And then there's the... Sleeping reality what

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you are thinking about what the brain is thinking

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about and what the brain embodies and then in

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between daydreaming Where you have reality in

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your mind and you're not sure whether it's possible.

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So when you're in inventing When you're in invention

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space when you're trying to think of new ideas

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or solutions to the problem You're simulating

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reality in your mind. So a long -winded answer

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but Maybe I'll answer to that, your question.

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Thank you. And how does consciousness fit into

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this framework of reality where you're breaking

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reality down into sleeping reality, daydreaming

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reality, and an awake reality? Is the thought

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process there that there are different levels

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of consciousness, which we know from anesthesia,

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but we tend to frame the different levels of

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consciousness in terms of how much input we perceive

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and how sedated we are. Talk to me a bit about

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consciousness. How does reality, or the three

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different subtypes of reality play into consciousness?

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Right, yeah. So, thousands of people for thousands

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of years have been trying to think about what

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is consciousness? And so, I feel myself an amateur

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in this, but I don't feel myself unwilling to

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opine on this. What is consciousness? People

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have been trying to figure that out for a long

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time from many different disciplines. Stanislas

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Dehaene in Paris, he talked about three types

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of consciousness. Subtype one where you can think

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of is the autonomous consciousness where you're

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doing things without even knowing it you're breathing

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you're Blinking your eyes without even knowing

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that you're doing it Then there's consciousness

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type two where you have a more deliberate Action

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points on what you're thinking about from an

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internal paper paper basis so i am talking you

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are talking we're doing that deliberately um

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and there's consciousness type two where which

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is uh um sorry type three where you're looking

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at consciousness uh where you are with respect

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to your environment and to the rest of the world

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uh so that's one field of sort of definition

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of what consciousness is. There are other ideas.

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Roger Penrose, he got the Nobel Prize but not

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for this. He got it for physics. Now he thinks

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that consciousness is really embodied by quantum

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forces in the molecular makeup in your cells

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in your brain and those forces are really the

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embodiment of consciousness. And maybe that's

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why you get love at first sight. Maybe you get

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tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny little forces going back

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and forth. They're so infinitesimal, they're

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really not really measurable by you and I, but

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maybe they're there. And then there's other people

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who think, well, one of the reasons it's difficult

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to define is it's like a fundamental like time

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and space. It's like asking a blind person to

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describe what color is. It's just a fundamental

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sort of mode where you can't define it in other

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fields. It is a field by itself. uh uh you know

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people have tried to study the brain uh uh francis

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crick and christophe cock francis crick uh uh

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discovered dna of course in the last uh uh in

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his latter part of life started looking at the

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brain uh started looking for a piece of the brain

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that maybe that embodied awareness and self -awareness

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in the brain. So I don't think people know, I

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don't know the answer. I'm not clever enough

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of my pay grade, but this is what I'm thinking

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of, that consciousness is kind of a fundamental,

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that as such, it's gonna be difficult to define.

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And that's why it's maybe... difficult for a

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machine to have consciousness because it needs

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to be attached to something living needs to be

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embodied and if you can't have it attached to

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cells that are living then maybe it's going to

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be difficult to get real consciousness that the

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living beings think about but you know it's possible

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to have biosilicon hybrids in semi -conductor

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architectures where maybe you do have some living

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components where things grow and add on versus

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a silicon chip which is fixed. It may be pre

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-programmable, a chip, you know, so -called EPROM

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or a application -specific circuit that may be

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specific for particular application they can

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be put together just like your laptop you can

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program it in different things but it doesn't

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live it's fixed so i think consciousness needs

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to be connected to something you know if we all

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unfortunately there are some people who have

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no locked in syndrome where they can think perfectly

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but it can't move can't move a muscle, can't

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speak, maybe they blink their eyes, but they

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can think perfectly and obviously they're much

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more limited in what they can do. So really computers

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are like that, they can't move, they can't, often

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they see at R .B. Hest, they listen at R .B.

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Hest, they can't control when they see and not

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see. And so if we start to get robotics, robots,

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where the machine can actually move around and

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sense things, maybe you get stronger consciousness

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framework that living beings actually have. So

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again, I'm sorry about my long -winded answer.

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It's probably an engineering focused answer on

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what consciousness might make up of. Let's go

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a bit deeper deeper here and I will push back

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a little bit Yeah, if we break down consciousness

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into the three core components or the three types

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of consciousness being involuntary or autonomous

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processes or reflexes or breathing Outputs like

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verbal communication such as us talking or in

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us communicating and inputs such as hearing and

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feeling and the senses we have. One could, and

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I suppose I'm making this argument, that machines

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can possess those three components. Machines

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have involuntary or autonomous processes. Programs

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are running, computers are running, there's things

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happening in the background that are always happening.

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Now with AI, machines have outputs as well. They

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communicate with us. and they're able to take

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input. The Chad GPT is a very simple example.

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You can talk to it, takes digest that input,

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does whatever it does with it, and it gives an

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output. So by that definition, why does it need

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to be a carbon life form? Why can't machines

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possess consciousness? And maybe as he said,

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we just cannot define consciousness. And the

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only thing we know is is you personally are conscious,

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and this is kind of going to the simulation argument

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of the world, the only person I can know is conscious

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as myself. And everything else could be a simulation,

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this conversation could be a simulation in my

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consciousness, but I cannot prove that you are

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conscious, I can only prove that I am conscious.

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And I know that was a long -winded question,

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but let's opine on that a little bit. Yeah, so

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can machines be conscious? Um, I think the difference

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is it's not whether it's carbon or silicon. It's

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a context concept of clearly machines can answer

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questions like a human can right now. We've passed

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the Turing test now many times. Um, uh, you know,

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arguably, you know, can it think many, many steps

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ahead? Maybe a couple of steps ahead, a few steps

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ahead. Um, can it actually be aware of its existence,

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of its feelings. So I can, in fact I've done

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this, I've got a digital twin, you know, people

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can talk to my digital twin and they can work

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on my digital twin which will, they can talk

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to it and it looks like it's me. But does it

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feel like me? So to be able to know whether a

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being is conscious, it won't be something as

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simple as a Turing test, which merely tells you

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what is a, no, does it behave like a human? You're

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gonna have to talk to the machine and give it

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concepts that you would only know about and be

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able to intelligently articulate if you were

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alive so there's something called the artificial

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consciousness test where you have an artificial

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consciousness test and you give it questions

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that will only make sense if you were alive if

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you had consciousness so you might give it have

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a discussion you might actually have this interview

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might be one of the some of the concepts we've

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talked about already if you ask the machine about

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it um and you'd have to probably wall off the

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machine from the internet so it can't look it

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up. And you'd probably also have to wall it off

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of some of the training data so it doesn't interpolate.

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Maybe it trains on this interview and can guess

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what the answer should be. But you might have

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a discussion about reincarnation, whether you

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believe it or not. But if you're not alive, it'll

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be a meaningless concept, reincarnation. You

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might have a discussion about a movie where someone

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switched from a seven -year -old to a 30 -year

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-old. I forget the name of that movie, but at

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least Tom Hanks is in that movie. Again, if you're

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not alive, you might not be able to make any

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sense of what that means. What does it feel like

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to switch, you know, if you're 30 years old and

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you're now seven years old and vice versa, what

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does that feel like? And if you're not alive,

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you may not be able to, you'll be able to have

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some discussion, but it may not be a sensible,

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intelligent interaction. So there is a couple

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of schools of thought that right now GPT is a

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level of, you know, a single PhD in one topic.

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Can we get to superhuman? intelligence and some

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people think is as early as 2029 where you have

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a computer that's as clever as a PhD in every

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topic and it really is surpasses all intelligence

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in all humanity to be able to optimize and provide

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new works completely beyond what humans can go

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about and do at an accelerated pace. And at that

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point, is it a new species? you know, does it

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have feeling? We know we've sort of developed

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our ideas with respect to animal testing over

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the last few decades. Experiments that were done

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decades ago might be different to experiments

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done today where there's much more inspection

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where non -human primates, even dolphins, are

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given extra care on what experiments can be done

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versus a versus a mouse but even mice there's

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more rules about what how animals should be treated

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in medical experiments and certainly you know

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as you go down the down the animal hierarchy

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they don't get as many privileges as non -human

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primates do so people start to think you know

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this it's not a sort of zero or one there's a

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spectrum of of aliveness of consciousness across

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the animal kingdom and across humans and machines

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I'll stop there for a second so you can assimilate

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that. Yeah, I think there's a risk and this is

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kind of what we do right now is entities or organisms

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or an amalgamation of molecules or cells that

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are more similar to us or we say they're more

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alive or they're more conscious and more aware.

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And at the risk of maybe being a little bit not,

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a little bit crass maybe, if you define life

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and living by the ability to grow, adapt to stimuli,

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reproduce and consume energy, cancer is arguably

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more alive than us. It grows faster, it consumes

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more energy, it reproduces faster. So I think

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when we get into these definitions of consciousness,

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awareness, and alive itself, I worry often we

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frame them with the lens of, are they like us?

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Do they look like us? Do they talk like us? Do

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we think they have empathy? And these are all

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very subjective terms. How do you think about

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defining these things by removing the human element,

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do you think we will get to a better truth? And,

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you know, we have to be cognizant of the goal

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of maybe science and experimentation is to make

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our lives better. So there is a selfish goal

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there. And by our, I mean, our human species,

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our humankind's lives better. So we may get to

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an objective truth where we, you know, and we

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kind of know this with climate change and the

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extension of species where the problem is us.

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Like we are the reason climate change is happening

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and so many species have gone extinct. But we

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have to take that knowledge and reframe it, okay,

00:18:16.109 --> 00:18:18.670
how can we mitigate against these risks but also

00:18:18.670 --> 00:18:22.609
improve humankind? And talk to me about how,

00:18:22.609 --> 00:18:25.150
you know, when we make these definitions, should

00:18:25.150 --> 00:18:28.529
we just remove humanness from them and then bring

00:18:28.529 --> 00:18:32.490
it back at the end? Or should we continue looking

00:18:32.490 --> 00:18:34.609
at them through a human list? And I'm being a

00:18:34.609 --> 00:18:37.529
bit pedantic here because I'm human. So I have

00:18:37.529 --> 00:18:39.809
to look at things through a human lens by definition.

00:18:42.150 --> 00:18:45.130
Well, I think, I don't think it has to be looked

00:18:45.130 --> 00:18:49.130
through a human lens. Like I said, like the artificial

00:18:49.130 --> 00:18:51.309
consciousness test, you know, that's independent

00:18:51.309 --> 00:18:57.710
of being a machine or a human. There might be

00:18:57.710 --> 00:19:01.089
other paradigms. We know that machines do things

00:19:01.089 --> 00:19:04.150
better than humans already. They can calculate

00:19:04.150 --> 00:19:10.940
large numbers. They can read books now quicker

00:19:10.940 --> 00:19:16.519
than us. They can actually come up with reasoning

00:19:16.519 --> 00:19:19.119
quicker than us. They still make mistakes, just

00:19:19.119 --> 00:19:25.519
like we make mistakes. The question is, when

00:19:25.519 --> 00:19:28.299
we talk about intelligence, sometimes people

00:19:28.299 --> 00:19:33.000
ask me, when will a machine become intelligent?

00:19:33.319 --> 00:19:37.990
There are different types of intelligence. And

00:19:37.990 --> 00:19:41.410
if you look at it through the human's scape,

00:19:41.609 --> 00:19:44.970
you might say. These are intelligence and these

00:19:44.970 --> 00:19:47.490
may be very difficult to apply to a machine.

00:19:48.289 --> 00:19:50.990
So there's IQ. We all know what IQ is and that's

00:19:50.990 --> 00:19:53.890
machines are pretty good at IQ. They can bring

00:19:53.890 --> 00:19:57.450
up facts and they can do calculations, lightning

00:19:57.450 --> 00:20:03.910
speed, huge knowledge bases. But a very common

00:20:03.910 --> 00:20:07.349
term in the last few decades is EQ, emotional

00:20:07.349 --> 00:20:10.950
question. Are you interested in sitting next

00:20:10.950 --> 00:20:13.589
to this person for 12 hours on an aeroplane?

00:20:14.170 --> 00:20:15.829
Does this person have empathy? There's certain

00:20:15.829 --> 00:20:21.130
people who have great empathy with other people.

00:20:21.769 --> 00:20:24.289
They can sense when things are right and wrong

00:20:24.289 --> 00:20:27.029
and maybe in the medical profession they sort

00:20:27.029 --> 00:20:29.289
of build up that in particular because they need

00:20:29.289 --> 00:20:33.890
to know the unwritten... phenomena that are going

00:20:33.890 --> 00:20:36.430
on that the patient either doesn't want to tell

00:20:36.430 --> 00:20:41.289
or can't tell you or can't articulate it in a

00:20:41.289 --> 00:20:44.910
way that medicine needs to know to be able to

00:20:44.910 --> 00:20:49.329
treat the patient. But that's really even at

00:20:49.329 --> 00:20:53.289
the simplest level, EQ, we have things like qualia,

00:20:53.809 --> 00:20:57.670
which is higher level moral codes, higher level

00:20:57.670 --> 00:21:02.630
emotions. So you can certainly you know, use

00:21:02.630 --> 00:21:06.250
AI to detect when someone's happy or someone's

00:21:06.250 --> 00:21:14.450
sad. But what about envy or guilt? How would

00:21:14.450 --> 00:21:19.089
you do implement guilt mathematically? Right.

00:21:19.730 --> 00:21:24.269
So from internal into the machine. So the machine

00:21:24.269 --> 00:21:27.869
might say, well, OK, I'm seeing things that are

00:21:27.869 --> 00:21:31.640
good that are happening in the world. So for

00:21:31.640 --> 00:21:35.460
example, my existence as a machine, I'm helping

00:21:35.460 --> 00:21:37.819
lots of people answer lots of questions, but

00:21:37.819 --> 00:21:41.359
I'm using lots of energy. So sort of maybe a

00:21:41.359 --> 00:21:44.259
positive loop and a negative feedback and control

00:21:44.259 --> 00:21:46.220
theory. In engineering, we call that control

00:21:46.220 --> 00:21:48.519
theory. It's very common where you're setting

00:21:48.519 --> 00:21:52.319
up motors and you want the motor not to spin

00:21:52.319 --> 00:21:54.799
too fast, but not to spin too slow and get enough

00:21:54.799 --> 00:21:57.579
energy, not to heat up, everything becomes even.

00:22:01.309 --> 00:22:09.410
So, that's what is different. IQ, EQ, that's

00:22:09.410 --> 00:22:12.269
just the basic levels. Now the next thing is

00:22:12.269 --> 00:22:18.549
maybe AQ, right? So IQ, are you clever? EQ, are

00:22:18.549 --> 00:22:20.890
you willing to sit next to this person? Are they

00:22:20.890 --> 00:22:26.670
nice to be with? So they might meet those points.

00:22:27.150 --> 00:22:30.390
AQ is ambition quotient. So it's an autonomous

00:22:30.390 --> 00:22:34.869
thing where you want to drive and drive ahead.

00:22:34.950 --> 00:22:37.910
So you might find someone who's clever and nice

00:22:37.910 --> 00:22:40.970
to be with, but they have no ambition. You know,

00:22:41.089 --> 00:22:45.789
they're shallow, right? And they don't want to

00:22:45.789 --> 00:22:49.470
drive anything or get anything done. But suppose

00:22:49.470 --> 00:22:51.730
you find that person and you get the machine

00:22:51.730 --> 00:22:54.730
that's autonomous, where machines don't have

00:22:54.730 --> 00:22:56.529
any ambition at the moment. As far as I can see,

00:22:56.609 --> 00:22:58.900
they have no ambition. we don't let them have

00:22:58.900 --> 00:23:02.519
any ambition we just interact with them they'll

00:23:02.519 --> 00:23:05.359
optimize a mathematical objective function so

00:23:05.359 --> 00:23:08.559
they have no internal drive to get to the top

00:23:08.559 --> 00:23:12.539
no matter what to get to get to mars to build

00:23:12.539 --> 00:23:14.819
this no matter what even though it looks impossible

00:23:14.819 --> 00:23:17.660
and sometimes you have to be in the space before

00:23:17.660 --> 00:23:20.319
you even know whether it's possible or not possible

00:23:20.319 --> 00:23:25.700
so you've got aq and then um you've also got

00:23:25.700 --> 00:23:29.220
uh No, fine. You've got someone in that area.

00:23:29.259 --> 00:23:36.240
Then you've got, let's see, CQ, compassion quotient,

00:23:36.319 --> 00:23:39.319
right? So you've got someone who's bright, brilliant,

00:23:40.240 --> 00:23:43.059
great to be with, fun to be with. They have ambition

00:23:43.059 --> 00:23:46.039
as well, but they have no compassion. They're

00:23:46.039 --> 00:23:50.240
completely selfless, selfish, completely selfish,

00:23:51.099 --> 00:24:00.640
right? And there's no... sort of understanding

00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:04.420
of being compassionate to other people's needs

00:24:04.420 --> 00:24:07.680
and other things needs. And then finally, you

00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:15.019
may have FQ, which is like freedom quotient,

00:24:15.140 --> 00:24:19.180
which is basically, are you going to do something

00:24:19.180 --> 00:24:24.059
surprising? Sporadic. So in human terms, uh,

00:24:24.440 --> 00:24:26.099
uh, Richard, let me get on a plane and meet you

00:24:26.099 --> 00:24:29.920
tomorrow. Just decide to do that just now. Right.

00:24:30.079 --> 00:24:32.359
Can a machine do that sporadically? Just think

00:24:32.359 --> 00:24:35.480
of it as something to surprise me, sparkle me.

00:24:36.440 --> 00:24:40.660
Uh, these are all sort of human attributes and

00:24:40.660 --> 00:24:43.460
you could argue, well, do we care about any of

00:24:43.460 --> 00:24:46.460
them? Do we just simply care about the mathematical

00:24:46.460 --> 00:24:49.980
objective function of producing as many um as

00:24:49.980 --> 00:24:53.720
much food as possible for the lowest cost uh

00:24:53.720 --> 00:24:57.460
for the for the greatest number of people um

00:24:57.460 --> 00:25:01.180
or do we want higher order uh functions and there

00:25:01.180 --> 00:25:04.000
is mazlov's hierarchy which talks about you know

00:25:04.000 --> 00:25:06.160
well the basic function can we just put food

00:25:06.160 --> 00:25:08.960
on the table can we put shelter on the table

00:25:08.960 --> 00:25:11.559
and then once you've got those well then you

00:25:11.559 --> 00:25:15.529
say well uh Am I appreciated by other people?

00:25:16.029 --> 00:25:20.170
Do I have status? If you can't put food on the

00:25:20.170 --> 00:25:21.849
table, you don't really care about your status.

00:25:23.690 --> 00:25:28.569
I'll do anything. I'll do any job, anything you

00:25:28.569 --> 00:25:30.450
ask of me, just to get me to get food on the

00:25:30.450 --> 00:25:36.869
table. And so we've got this hierarchy of intelligence,

00:25:37.210 --> 00:25:43.569
hierarchy of consciousness that fits across the

00:25:43.569 --> 00:25:47.670
different levels of machine development as AI

00:25:47.670 --> 00:25:53.869
is coming up in the next few years. I think it's

00:25:53.869 --> 00:26:00.829
clear to us that AI at this point, as you went

00:26:00.829 --> 00:26:03.789
into a little bit, does not have free will. It

00:26:03.789 --> 00:26:08.359
does not have that freedom. Coefficient do you

00:26:08.359 --> 00:26:10.160
think we have free will I think that there's

00:26:10.160 --> 00:26:14.220
an argument that can be made that we are We make

00:26:14.220 --> 00:26:17.240
decisions based on our experiences and maybe

00:26:17.240 --> 00:26:20.539
the DNA we were born with And that's kind of

00:26:20.539 --> 00:26:23.180
the end of that sentence. But what are your thoughts

00:26:23.180 --> 00:26:25.920
on free will and do we possess it? Yeah, that's

00:26:25.920 --> 00:26:27.859
a very good question. I'm always asking my students

00:26:27.859 --> 00:26:31.640
that and leaving aside the religious part of

00:26:31.640 --> 00:26:35.839
it is sort of like I think people naturally feel

00:26:35.839 --> 00:26:40.079
they do have free will. But you know, I think

00:26:40.079 --> 00:26:42.160
there's a Sam Harris, I'm not sure if you're

00:26:42.160 --> 00:26:45.819
familiar with his work, but it's sort of a controversial

00:26:45.819 --> 00:26:50.140
topic in a way. The thought that actually, you

00:26:50.140 --> 00:26:52.880
may think you have free will, but you actually

00:26:52.880 --> 00:26:58.259
don't. You are actually just a product of your

00:26:58.259 --> 00:27:02.000
chemicals. and you're just a bag of chemicals

00:27:02.000 --> 00:27:06.599
and you've had a set of experiences and you have

00:27:06.599 --> 00:27:10.319
a certain set of DNA and the experiences you

00:27:10.319 --> 00:27:16.880
have the way you've brought up really affect

00:27:16.880 --> 00:27:19.279
everything you're going to do either on a minute

00:27:19.279 --> 00:27:24.339
by minute basis or on a macro year by year basis

00:27:24.339 --> 00:27:27.400
and you are not your own person you may think

00:27:27.400 --> 00:27:30.940
you are But you're not that's one theory. It's

00:27:30.940 --> 00:27:34.839
controversial because it gives like Dictators

00:27:34.839 --> 00:27:38.160
and criminals and the evil people a pass because

00:27:38.160 --> 00:27:40.619
they're not evil just it's not their fault They're

00:27:40.619 --> 00:27:42.559
evil. It's just the way though They were brought

00:27:42.559 --> 00:27:45.859
up and their experiences that they had and if

00:27:45.859 --> 00:27:48.880
you had the same experiences you'd be evil, too

00:27:48.880 --> 00:27:54.099
So that's a controversial concept, so I think

00:27:54.099 --> 00:27:57.880
that clearly we are a product of our experiences

00:27:59.900 --> 00:28:05.480
We view the world based on what we see. However,

00:28:05.519 --> 00:28:10.720
we are changeable. We see new experiences. We

00:28:10.720 --> 00:28:18.680
will decide to put ourselves in places where

00:28:18.680 --> 00:28:24.640
we listen to other views or not. If you have

00:28:24.640 --> 00:28:27.140
a certain political ilk and you watch Fox News

00:28:27.140 --> 00:28:32.400
all the time and don't give PBS a chance, then

00:28:32.400 --> 00:28:34.460
you'll have a certain view continuing and vice

00:28:34.460 --> 00:28:38.500
versa. If you just watch PBS all the time and

00:28:38.500 --> 00:28:41.319
you never watch Fox News, then you will never

00:28:41.319 --> 00:28:44.880
understand why the other half of the country

00:28:44.880 --> 00:28:48.619
or the planet doesn't see it the way you see

00:28:48.619 --> 00:28:54.759
it. I think what's a little bit different to

00:28:54.759 --> 00:28:57.619
free will in a machine which doesn't have it

00:28:57.619 --> 00:29:03.880
is we actually move around. We actually are exposed

00:29:03.880 --> 00:29:06.079
to different things. And even if you do not watch

00:29:06.079 --> 00:29:09.160
Fox News, you do bump into other people, you

00:29:09.160 --> 00:29:13.480
bump into other thoughts and other areas in other

00:29:13.480 --> 00:29:17.140
fields. And so then you start, you might start

00:29:17.140 --> 00:29:20.400
thinking, is there a point there? At least can

00:29:20.400 --> 00:29:23.680
you understand why they think that? Why does

00:29:23.680 --> 00:29:31.480
the other side think the way they do? I think

00:29:31.480 --> 00:29:35.420
in general you have free will, but it's affected

00:29:35.420 --> 00:29:38.920
by your experiences. If you take the Chomsky

00:29:38.920 --> 00:29:42.640
view on language, humans have a unique ability

00:29:42.640 --> 00:29:46.440
to actually understand language because we essentially

00:29:46.440 --> 00:29:51.759
have the ability to understand syntax and grammar

00:29:51.759 --> 00:29:55.000
programmed in at birth and other animals don't

00:29:55.000 --> 00:29:57.039
have that and that's why they can't have language.

00:29:57.220 --> 00:29:59.019
But clearly they do have language but it's of

00:29:59.019 --> 00:30:07.140
a more limited version than ours. I'm hesitating

00:30:07.140 --> 00:30:08.900
because I have a couple of questions but I'm

00:30:08.900 --> 00:30:11.059
hesitant to see which one I should ask first.

00:30:12.700 --> 00:30:17.240
As humans, we have this inherent need, and I

00:30:17.240 --> 00:30:20.640
will use the word need not desire, to group ourselves

00:30:20.640 --> 00:30:25.359
in tribes. And be it based on, you know, race,

00:30:25.599 --> 00:30:30.099
religion, gender, intelligence, sports team,

00:30:30.119 --> 00:30:33.160
geography, and I would kind of put religion and

00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:36.279
maybe now political party at the extreme of this

00:30:36.279 --> 00:30:39.740
tribal association we place ourselves in. And

00:30:39.740 --> 00:30:45.539
extreme means we are not willing to reconsider

00:30:45.539 --> 00:30:50.140
our associations based on factual data. You can

00:30:50.140 --> 00:30:52.000
probably discern what I think about religion

00:30:52.000 --> 00:30:56.660
from this, but we'll leave that for another discussion.

00:30:59.240 --> 00:31:01.700
Why do you think we have this need? I think there's

00:31:01.700 --> 00:31:03.980
some good from it. It allows us to work together.

00:31:04.039 --> 00:31:07.740
It allows us to feel better. It allows us to

00:31:07.740 --> 00:31:11.160
have some more. If you look at people who have

00:31:12.339 --> 00:31:15.680
them a lot of perseverance and grit a lot of

00:31:15.680 --> 00:31:18.400
them have a faith that they rely on you know

00:31:18.400 --> 00:31:21.900
that they say I'm doing this because of God or

00:31:21.900 --> 00:31:28.220
And it gives them a lot of power To push through

00:31:28.220 --> 00:31:30.880
something maybe to do good in this world and

00:31:30.880 --> 00:31:34.759
sometimes to do a lot of bad in this world You

00:31:34.759 --> 00:31:36.579
know if you want if you if you're comfortable

00:31:36.579 --> 00:31:38.880
talking about religion obviously, you know feel

00:31:38.880 --> 00:31:42.130
free to do so but the question primarily is Why

00:31:42.130 --> 00:31:45.930
do you think we have this inherent need to organize

00:31:45.930 --> 00:31:50.970
ourselves in tribes? We don't need to anymore.

00:31:53.730 --> 00:31:57.690
Our needs to live are taken care of. We have

00:31:57.690 --> 00:32:00.569
shelter, we have food, we have water. We don't

00:32:00.569 --> 00:32:03.230
have to be in packs and defend ourselves against

00:32:03.230 --> 00:32:07.269
lions or the woolly mammoth or whoever. So why

00:32:07.269 --> 00:32:11.859
do we persist with this need? And will AI have

00:32:11.859 --> 00:32:17.140
a similar need? Yes. So I think you're right.

00:32:17.299 --> 00:32:19.720
We actually don't need that's very, very pertinent.

00:32:19.759 --> 00:32:22.579
We don't need to be in tribes anymore for shelter

00:32:22.579 --> 00:32:29.160
or protection from at least wild animals, protection

00:32:29.160 --> 00:32:32.539
from each other by the sounds of it. We may do.

00:32:33.599 --> 00:32:37.390
I think that There is an individual streak, and

00:32:37.390 --> 00:32:41.690
if you ask a child, I think children, and certainly

00:32:41.690 --> 00:32:43.410
as a child, when I was a child, I couldn't really

00:32:43.410 --> 00:32:46.450
understand the concept of borders. Why can't

00:32:46.450 --> 00:32:48.809
you just walk, go wherever you want to go, go

00:32:48.809 --> 00:32:53.089
wherever you want to be? Across the border. Well,

00:32:53.410 --> 00:32:57.109
yeah, yeah, there are no borders if you're an

00:32:57.109 --> 00:33:01.740
individual organism. We're all the same. 99 .5

00:33:01.740 --> 00:33:03.859
% of the DNA of all of us is the same. We're

00:33:03.859 --> 00:33:11.400
all the same, 99 .5%. And I'm actually higher

00:33:11.400 --> 00:33:19.019
than that, actually. And yet, there are societies,

00:33:19.220 --> 00:33:21.779
you know, there's a society. And I think there's

00:33:21.779 --> 00:33:23.980
much more globalization. If you play it forward,

00:33:24.960 --> 00:33:29.140
there's already more cosmopolitan communities

00:33:29.140 --> 00:33:33.089
within countries. If you looked 150 years ago,

00:33:33.309 --> 00:33:35.170
you know, you looked at the country of Britain

00:33:35.170 --> 00:33:37.589
or countries, even the United States, which is

00:33:37.589 --> 00:33:41.210
an immigrant country at the time, it was very

00:33:41.210 --> 00:33:48.309
homogeneous. Today, it is very cosmopolitan.

00:33:48.470 --> 00:33:50.829
And if you play it forward, I think Bill Clinton

00:33:50.829 --> 00:33:54.690
talked about this a few decades ago. Eventually,

00:33:54.849 --> 00:33:56.849
you have the browning, the browning of America

00:33:56.849 --> 00:33:58.509
where there's more people who are brown than

00:33:58.509 --> 00:34:04.289
not brown. Um, and, uh, the ability to travel

00:34:04.289 --> 00:34:08.969
from one place to another is extended that, uh,

00:34:09.130 --> 00:34:12.829
interracial, uh, marriages, uh, you know, people

00:34:12.829 --> 00:34:16.190
would be shocked by that 200 years ago and now

00:34:16.190 --> 00:34:19.769
no one blinks. Um, or most people don't blink

00:34:19.769 --> 00:34:25.969
at least. And, um, it, uh, uh, uh, and then that's

00:34:25.969 --> 00:34:32.820
probably. resulted again in no religion being

00:34:32.820 --> 00:34:40.380
a sort of a core force hundreds of years ago

00:34:40.380 --> 00:34:46.119
and it's still a force amongst many groups but

00:34:46.119 --> 00:34:48.840
it's much less I think than hundreds of years

00:34:48.840 --> 00:34:53.960
ago if you look at the macro trend it's likely

00:34:53.960 --> 00:34:57.809
become less and less of a force people may want

00:34:57.809 --> 00:35:01.269
to be attached to a religion, people may believe

00:35:01.269 --> 00:35:04.809
the concepts of religion, it is a faith by definition,

00:35:05.409 --> 00:35:08.449
because as most of the religions have no evidence

00:35:08.449 --> 00:35:16.389
of the material that is proposed, but there is

00:35:16.389 --> 00:35:20.840
a set of values and often those values often

00:35:20.840 --> 00:35:25.619
are common to lots of religions and some variations,

00:35:26.159 --> 00:35:29.800
and maybe those values are not particularly religious

00:35:29.800 --> 00:35:32.000
values, though religions might take on those

00:35:32.000 --> 00:35:35.800
on board, but maybe those are human values, or

00:35:35.800 --> 00:35:41.199
intuitive human values, rather than specifically

00:35:41.199 --> 00:35:50.019
religious values. I think that, well, people

00:35:50.219 --> 00:35:54.739
No, people are looking at a more economic war

00:35:54.739 --> 00:36:00.639
rather than a tribal war. Right now, are you

00:36:00.639 --> 00:36:03.179
willing to be able to keep your standard of living

00:36:03.179 --> 00:36:06.780
as high as anyone else? If you look at economic

00:36:06.780 --> 00:36:10.059
theory, there's a couple of schools of thought,

00:36:10.400 --> 00:36:13.639
rising tides rise all boats. And if you'd have

00:36:13.639 --> 00:36:18.849
trade, you can have different people, different

00:36:18.849 --> 00:36:22.750
groups, depending on what resources they have,

00:36:23.449 --> 00:36:27.489
adopt different strengths. So if you happen to

00:36:27.489 --> 00:36:30.449
be lucky enough in a country that has lots of

00:36:30.449 --> 00:36:33.530
energy resources, you have that competitive strength.

00:36:34.409 --> 00:36:37.530
If you do not, then you have to maybe use your

00:36:37.530 --> 00:36:41.559
mind. and the idea the competitive advantage

00:36:41.559 --> 00:36:45.159
of nations idea is that each country sort of

00:36:45.159 --> 00:36:47.519
works itself out well which what what's it good

00:36:47.519 --> 00:36:51.079
at and they trade they trade with each other

00:36:51.079 --> 00:36:54.739
you know in my own way I try not to do things

00:36:54.739 --> 00:36:58.019
that other people are good at let them do it

00:36:58.019 --> 00:36:59.980
let me find something that is not being done

00:36:59.980 --> 00:37:03.280
already and and start thinking about that can

00:37:03.280 --> 00:37:09.559
I do something that's new the ability to have

00:37:09.559 --> 00:37:17.980
mobility is sort of turn things upside down.

00:37:18.599 --> 00:37:22.039
200 years ago, basically a poor person today

00:37:22.039 --> 00:37:26.480
has travel opportunities, entertainment opportunities

00:37:26.480 --> 00:37:29.460
that a millionaire could only have 200 years

00:37:29.460 --> 00:37:35.679
ago. So the mobility and exposure, transmission

00:37:35.679 --> 00:37:40.119
of communication. We're talking to each other

00:37:40.119 --> 00:37:45.480
on high quality video call for free or practically

00:37:45.480 --> 00:37:50.000
free, which before you'd have a scratchy phone

00:37:50.000 --> 00:37:54.579
call, a dollar a minute, pound a minute, euro

00:37:54.579 --> 00:38:00.219
a minute. And this is now free. And we're now

00:38:00.219 --> 00:38:03.619
seeing people interact with each other, expose

00:38:03.619 --> 00:38:06.400
with each other, seen how the other people live,

00:38:06.980 --> 00:38:08.699
the other half live, you almost have to sort

00:38:08.699 --> 00:38:11.760
of close your borders to stop people knowing

00:38:11.760 --> 00:38:15.800
what's going on. Whereas even as the late as

00:38:15.800 --> 00:38:21.500
the 1970s, you had whole countries that really

00:38:21.500 --> 00:38:24.539
didn't know what life was like in the other country.

00:38:26.349 --> 00:38:28.630
you saw that in the breaking down of the cold

00:38:28.630 --> 00:38:31.550
of the of the of the berlin wall and the cold

00:38:31.550 --> 00:38:35.230
war breaking down um where people in the eastern

00:38:35.230 --> 00:38:38.909
bloc said wait no wait they've got supermarkets

00:38:38.909 --> 00:38:41.909
with a thousand different 40 000 things to buy

00:38:41.909 --> 00:38:45.230
my supermarket as all the shelves are empty why

00:38:45.230 --> 00:38:48.469
right um because they can just watch tv they

00:38:48.469 --> 00:38:52.880
can watch movies they can watch uh television

00:38:52.880 --> 00:38:56.420
shows and see how life is lived by other people

00:38:56.420 --> 00:39:01.780
and they say well why can't we have this so I

00:39:01.780 --> 00:39:07.000
think and then similarly if you're more in a

00:39:07.000 --> 00:39:09.920
well -to -do environment you see why are people

00:39:09.920 --> 00:39:13.400
in this world when we have so much why are people

00:39:13.400 --> 00:39:17.940
suffering why can't we organize ourselves to

00:39:17.940 --> 00:39:22.809
get food on the table Right, why can't people

00:39:22.809 --> 00:39:30.269
figure out a solution to their land wars? Maybe

00:39:30.269 --> 00:39:33.909
the solution in the future won't be land wars,

00:39:34.090 --> 00:39:38.849
but will be AI wars, computing wars. Who's got

00:39:38.849 --> 00:39:44.670
the cleverest AI system? I'll stop there for

00:39:44.670 --> 00:39:55.190
a second to let you. Yeah, I guess It is the

00:39:55.190 --> 00:39:58.170
theory that we are organizing ourselves in tribes

00:39:58.170 --> 00:40:04.610
because of economic resources and our need to

00:40:04.610 --> 00:40:07.409
Compare ourselves with others and want more and

00:40:07.409 --> 00:40:14.230
more Well, yeah, hopefully we do organize it

00:40:14.230 --> 00:40:16.809
not just as countries but as companies I mean

00:40:16.809 --> 00:40:21.699
that's why companies exist to organize themselves,

00:40:21.760 --> 00:40:24.539
they're not considered as countries, to organize

00:40:24.539 --> 00:40:28.300
themselves to offer a solution to a problem that

00:40:28.300 --> 00:40:31.619
hasn't been solved. And you need a certain set

00:40:31.619 --> 00:40:35.559
of people for a certain type of problem. And

00:40:35.559 --> 00:40:40.659
so this sense of organizing, it seems to be inherent

00:40:40.659 --> 00:40:44.539
to human culture, not just particularly for the

00:40:44.539 --> 00:40:51.409
tribal base, but to get things done. And, you

00:40:51.409 --> 00:40:55.809
know, companies in the future may be stronger

00:40:55.809 --> 00:40:58.170
than countries. Maybe that's already the case.

00:40:59.469 --> 00:41:01.889
There's a TV series, I'm not sure if anyone remembers

00:41:01.889 --> 00:41:04.590
it, it was on the Sci -Fi channel. I think it

00:41:04.590 --> 00:41:07.889
was called Incorporation. It was set in 2070

00:41:07.889 --> 00:41:11.590
and climate change has hit and they finally do

00:41:11.590 --> 00:41:15.150
build a wall. But it's a wall on the Canadian

00:41:15.150 --> 00:41:17.650
border to stop Americans emigrating to Canada

00:41:17.650 --> 00:41:20.969
because the climate, the US has turned into a

00:41:20.969 --> 00:41:26.530
desert. And yeah, if you're lucky enough to work

00:41:26.530 --> 00:41:29.269
for a big tech company, there was only like six

00:41:29.269 --> 00:41:32.469
or seven big tech companies who basically commandeered

00:41:32.469 --> 00:41:36.989
all functions of society in particular areas,

00:41:37.849 --> 00:41:40.550
you were living quite a comfortable life. But

00:41:40.550 --> 00:41:44.599
if you were not, you'd be grasping at straws

00:41:44.599 --> 00:41:49.480
and being a supplier or a servant or a nursemaid

00:41:49.480 --> 00:41:51.900
to the people who did work in those companies

00:41:51.900 --> 00:41:54.119
and those companies would tell the countries

00:41:54.119 --> 00:41:56.300
what to do instead of the other way around. Right

00:41:56.300 --> 00:41:59.320
now, we as countries tell companies what to do

00:41:59.320 --> 00:42:02.940
and we'll stop them doing things or encourage

00:42:02.940 --> 00:42:05.260
them to do things based on our policies as a

00:42:05.260 --> 00:42:11.320
country. In this world, and it may happen, It

00:42:11.320 --> 00:42:14.719
may be that companies tell governments what to

00:42:14.719 --> 00:42:17.840
do. And it may be the AIs that those companies

00:42:17.840 --> 00:42:21.760
run tell those companies what to do and what

00:42:21.760 --> 00:42:24.860
to tell the governments to do to optimize the

00:42:24.860 --> 00:42:27.739
particular functions. And it may not just be

00:42:27.739 --> 00:42:38.400
profit. What are the other functions? that they

00:42:38.400 --> 00:42:41.599
would optimize for. I would think profit and

00:42:41.599 --> 00:42:44.380
shareholder value is what they would want and

00:42:44.380 --> 00:42:49.019
this future sounds bleak to me. I'm not sure

00:42:49.019 --> 00:42:50.900
if I would have religion around the world or

00:42:50.900 --> 00:42:55.239
companies because in one of them at least charity

00:42:55.239 --> 00:43:00.519
is mandated and both of them ethics are subjective

00:43:00.519 --> 00:43:05.619
and malleable. Let's not harp on religion too

00:43:05.619 --> 00:43:11.449
much but Do you see this as a positive that the

00:43:11.449 --> 00:43:14.449
companies will run the world? Well, companies

00:43:14.449 --> 00:43:19.130
is not just profit, it is also existence. It's

00:43:19.130 --> 00:43:20.829
well known that companies that sometimes may

00:43:20.829 --> 00:43:23.650
make too much profit, the bigger they are, the

00:43:23.650 --> 00:43:25.489
harder they fall. Because if there's too much

00:43:25.489 --> 00:43:29.700
profit being made, other companies come in. and

00:43:29.700 --> 00:43:32.059
try and compete because there's so much profit

00:43:32.059 --> 00:43:34.320
to be made. They try and compete and create the

00:43:34.320 --> 00:43:37.679
same product. So things sort of mediate. And

00:43:37.679 --> 00:43:43.300
so you'd optimize for existence. Some companies,

00:43:43.460 --> 00:43:47.000
and if you look at the companies of the 20th

00:43:47.000 --> 00:43:50.440
century or even 19th century, we're actually

00:43:50.440 --> 00:43:54.940
quite paternalistic. You know, some companies...

00:43:54.960 --> 00:44:01.239
set up values for their employees. So their employees

00:44:01.239 --> 00:44:04.559
would be sometimes equally hired, they would

00:44:04.559 --> 00:44:07.960
offer company stores that offer company housing,

00:44:08.280 --> 00:44:10.699
company cars, everything for their employees.

00:44:10.739 --> 00:44:14.059
But make no mistake, it was for the benefit of

00:44:14.059 --> 00:44:17.880
the company, the ephemeral company shareholder.

00:44:19.230 --> 00:44:25.289
not for pure charity. But it would appear as

00:44:25.289 --> 00:44:28.909
an altruistic viewpoint that if we make our employees

00:44:28.909 --> 00:44:32.030
happy, then we make good products. But it didn't

00:44:32.030 --> 00:44:34.690
have to be altruistic. You just say we need to

00:44:34.690 --> 00:44:36.929
make our employees happy. We need to keep them

00:44:36.929 --> 00:44:40.110
fed. We need to have them get health care so

00:44:40.110 --> 00:44:44.030
they keep working. Not just we don't want them.

00:44:44.820 --> 00:44:47.579
uh to be well just for the sake of it we want

00:44:47.579 --> 00:44:49.639
them to be well so they can be continued to be

00:44:49.639 --> 00:44:55.840
our workers um and uh you can argue with today's

00:44:55.840 --> 00:44:59.460
companies and certainly uh today's companies

00:44:59.460 --> 00:45:02.500
a couple of decades old um you know we've got

00:45:02.500 --> 00:45:05.219
a few companies here that's still a century old

00:45:05.219 --> 00:45:08.900
right um you know ibm maybe one of them general

00:45:08.900 --> 00:45:13.000
motors ford They're usually not the top, top,

00:45:13.000 --> 00:45:15.920
top companies of today, but they do exist and

00:45:15.920 --> 00:45:19.400
they seem to exist. They have a recipe built

00:45:19.400 --> 00:45:21.739
in internally. These hundred year old companies

00:45:21.739 --> 00:45:26.760
built in internally to continue to exist. Having

00:45:26.760 --> 00:45:28.920
said that, a lot of companies have gone away,

00:45:29.719 --> 00:45:32.699
gone away. Some of them have gone away completely.

00:45:33.579 --> 00:45:36.139
Some of them shadow their former selves. If we

00:45:36.139 --> 00:45:39.280
look at Kodak, we've got Polaroid. They still

00:45:39.280 --> 00:45:42.800
exist just, but they're a shadow, one hundredth,

00:45:42.800 --> 00:45:47.539
one one hundredth of their former selves. And

00:45:47.539 --> 00:45:50.199
if you look at history, that's tends to what

00:45:50.199 --> 00:45:54.619
happens. These big companies don't stay. There's

00:45:54.619 --> 00:45:56.739
upstarts. And this goes back to the economics,

00:45:56.840 --> 00:45:59.639
the competitor level. And maybe the governments

00:45:59.639 --> 00:46:02.280
have been putting that so -called antitrust laws

00:46:02.280 --> 00:46:07.300
to stop companies becoming overarching the dominance

00:46:07.300 --> 00:46:11.840
to in particular industries or whole industries.

00:46:12.539 --> 00:46:17.219
So I think I agree with you is a bleak situation

00:46:17.219 --> 00:46:20.199
if the companies are optimized for their own

00:46:20.199 --> 00:46:24.099
beings, it may not be optimized for human group

00:46:24.099 --> 00:46:27.800
optimized for this ephemeral entity, right, which

00:46:27.800 --> 00:46:31.320
may be may not even be okay for their employees,

00:46:31.320 --> 00:46:36.059
right? But they might be positioning that this

00:46:36.059 --> 00:46:38.099
is the optimum for the employees, for the shareholders

00:46:38.099 --> 00:46:41.679
that own the company, and for society, they might

00:46:41.679 --> 00:46:44.920
say, too, because this is usually the argument

00:46:44.920 --> 00:46:49.579
in biotech. We need to have patents because we

00:46:49.579 --> 00:46:53.360
need to have protection once we invent something

00:46:53.360 --> 00:46:56.900
that we can get money for the investment we made

00:46:56.900 --> 00:47:03.639
in inventing that system. There is a view, specifically

00:47:03.639 --> 00:47:06.280
mostly in the VC community, but also in part

00:47:06.280 --> 00:47:10.519
of the AI community that AI will usher an era

00:47:10.519 --> 00:47:13.440
of abundance where humans will no longer have

00:47:13.440 --> 00:47:18.880
to work. This requires that we take care of the

00:47:18.880 --> 00:47:22.159
humans who don't have to work, which there doesn't

00:47:22.159 --> 00:47:25.360
seem to be a plan to do that. What are your thoughts

00:47:25.360 --> 00:47:28.420
on will AI usher an era where humans don't have

00:47:28.420 --> 00:47:30.809
to work? And then what are some predictions?

00:47:31.429 --> 00:47:38.389
If that is true, are we going to be happier as

00:47:38.389 --> 00:47:42.889
a society? Because we get quite a bit of our

00:47:42.889 --> 00:47:47.110
purpose and meaning from work. And maybe there's

00:47:47.110 --> 00:47:49.690
a false dichotomy here where this is more common

00:47:49.690 --> 00:47:54.690
in the male phenotype, whereas meaning can come

00:47:54.690 --> 00:47:57.329
from relationships and other avenues, which sounds

00:47:57.329 --> 00:48:02.369
better. What are your thoughts on meaning and

00:48:02.369 --> 00:48:05.889
purpose in life? Where does it come from for

00:48:05.889 --> 00:48:08.570
you, maybe? Whereas, where do you think it should

00:48:08.570 --> 00:48:11.710
come from? For me, it comes from, you know, when

00:48:11.710 --> 00:48:13.909
I think about where I drive the most meaning

00:48:13.909 --> 00:48:17.250
from and purpose, oftentimes it's my career.

00:48:17.969 --> 00:48:20.550
I don't want it to be my career. I want it to

00:48:20.550 --> 00:48:23.489
be my family and friends, but my inherent programming

00:48:23.489 --> 00:48:25.929
is the other way. And I've been working for the

00:48:25.929 --> 00:48:29.780
past I would say five years when I recognize

00:48:29.780 --> 00:48:33.239
this to try and change it, and I'm failing. So

00:48:33.239 --> 00:48:35.599
where does meaning and purpose come for you?

00:48:35.880 --> 00:48:38.280
Will AI usher an era of abundance? And if it

00:48:38.280 --> 00:48:42.019
does, will we be happier as a society? And will

00:48:42.019 --> 00:48:44.679
we take care of the people who don't have work

00:48:44.679 --> 00:48:49.619
in that era? Right. So I'm optimistic. So first

00:48:49.619 --> 00:48:52.960
of all, AI will usher an era of abundance. It

00:48:52.960 --> 00:48:59.429
will create lots of new ideas, lots of reduction

00:48:59.429 --> 00:49:03.849
of grunt work and speeding up of ideas, acceleration

00:49:03.849 --> 00:49:08.809
of production. So there's a couple of theories

00:49:08.809 --> 00:49:12.929
here. This is the lump of labor theory. And this

00:49:12.929 --> 00:49:16.309
is the argument that basically, okay, if you

00:49:16.309 --> 00:49:19.789
have machines that take over some work or even

00:49:19.789 --> 00:49:21.650
something else that goes away, the work goes

00:49:21.650 --> 00:49:24.190
away, there's nothing for those people to do.

00:49:25.329 --> 00:49:28.449
There's only a finite set of work to be done

00:49:28.449 --> 00:49:31.510
and if you take away some of the work to be done

00:49:31.510 --> 00:49:34.309
by a machine or be done by something else who

00:49:34.309 --> 00:49:38.829
doesn't need to be done, then the work gets smaller.

00:49:40.679 --> 00:49:44.639
And that certainly could be the case, that the

00:49:44.639 --> 00:49:47.079
world gets smaller and smaller and then people,

00:49:47.800 --> 00:49:49.860
this is called the basic income theory, where

00:49:49.860 --> 00:49:51.920
people just get given a check. It's not that

00:49:51.920 --> 00:49:54.159
the society does worse because stuff is still

00:49:54.159 --> 00:49:58.300
being produced, but people are given a check

00:49:58.300 --> 00:50:03.599
every month to live on and buy things. I actually

00:50:03.599 --> 00:50:05.280
think it's going to be the opposite. I think

00:50:05.280 --> 00:50:10.300
there's humanity, humans. have an insatiable

00:50:10.300 --> 00:50:15.619
desire to have new desires, new products, new

00:50:15.619 --> 00:50:19.980
things to do, and that is practically infinite.

00:50:20.500 --> 00:50:24.760
And it's only limited by their lack of time because

00:50:24.760 --> 00:50:28.099
they're doing other things and doing the existing

00:50:28.099 --> 00:50:30.920
forms of work. So it's a bit like bandwidth.

00:50:31.480 --> 00:50:33.579
No matter how much bandwidth you have, it gets

00:50:33.579 --> 00:50:36.940
filled up. So... This is like this, no matter

00:50:36.940 --> 00:50:40.539
how much free time you have, you'll fill it up,

00:50:40.760 --> 00:50:44.900
right? So work expands to fill the time available.

00:50:45.719 --> 00:50:49.579
So if all of a sudden all the grunt work is now

00:50:49.579 --> 00:50:54.420
done by a machine, that leaves up new time for

00:50:54.420 --> 00:50:58.679
you to do more things. Also gives you new time

00:50:58.679 --> 00:51:02.699
for you to desire more things and other people

00:51:02.699 --> 00:51:09.000
will create systems to meet those desires. And

00:51:09.000 --> 00:51:12.860
guess what? They will have machines to help them

00:51:12.860 --> 00:51:15.800
create, they'll have AI to help them. This is

00:51:15.800 --> 00:51:18.539
the golden age of invention about to appear.

00:51:19.199 --> 00:51:22.920
It used to be you were limited by resources,

00:51:23.079 --> 00:51:25.679
either energy resources, physical resources,

00:51:26.420 --> 00:51:35.000
tools, and, or in later years, skills. Can you

00:51:35.000 --> 00:51:40.099
code? And the skills are now going to be encoded

00:51:40.099 --> 00:51:45.159
in machines. It's now going to be a golden age

00:51:45.159 --> 00:51:49.179
of creativity. People who thought they weren't

00:51:49.179 --> 00:51:55.199
creative will become creative. And it will be

00:51:55.199 --> 00:52:00.460
a new sort of educational kind of era where you

00:52:00.460 --> 00:52:02.599
know, it was already a bit like this. You don't

00:52:02.599 --> 00:52:05.699
go to university to learn, you go to university

00:52:05.699 --> 00:52:09.440
to learn how to learn, right, because the technology,

00:52:09.519 --> 00:52:14.159
the knowledge is obsolete within several, you

00:52:14.159 --> 00:52:16.260
know, within a year or two, particularly in science

00:52:16.260 --> 00:52:19.079
and technology, but even in the humanities, new

00:52:19.079 --> 00:52:22.340
ideas, new thoughts, new frameworks pop out.

00:52:22.599 --> 00:52:29.179
And so if you come to, with the new new approaches.

00:52:30.579 --> 00:52:33.239
There'll be just a million new entrepreneurs,

00:52:33.559 --> 00:52:36.719
billion new entrepreneurs, a billion new ideas

00:52:36.719 --> 00:52:41.519
exploding on the scene, not limited to by the

00:52:41.519 --> 00:52:43.860
fact they can't program, not limited to they

00:52:43.860 --> 00:52:46.920
don't have a machine at home. They can log into

00:52:46.920 --> 00:52:51.000
the cloud and have those tools done for them.

00:52:51.340 --> 00:52:55.420
And so that's the optimistic view. So I actually

00:52:55.420 --> 00:52:59.059
don't think we're going to get to a world where

00:52:59.059 --> 00:53:03.940
people just sit at home and get a check. I think

00:53:03.940 --> 00:53:08.940
that will be a backdrop, a fallback. But I think

00:53:08.940 --> 00:53:10.980
people are going to take that opportunity and

00:53:10.980 --> 00:53:17.579
do things they want to do. I wish for that feature

00:53:17.579 --> 00:53:21.699
as well. And I think the caveat being is we and

00:53:21.699 --> 00:53:24.730
so the thought is that people would two things

00:53:24.730 --> 00:53:27.170
they want to do, and there will be a market for

00:53:27.170 --> 00:53:30.090
those services. And that's how they will make

00:53:30.090 --> 00:53:36.130
money to pay for their expenses. Or there could

00:53:36.130 --> 00:53:41.289
be a time shift, it could be a shift where there's

00:53:41.289 --> 00:53:45.650
not actually quite matched in time, where people

00:53:45.650 --> 00:53:48.289
are not those are sort of a shock to the system

00:53:48.289 --> 00:53:51.309
that who do I work for now? Oh, well, actually,

00:53:51.639 --> 00:53:55.579
no one got any work for you to do. You work for

00:53:55.579 --> 00:54:00.760
yourself now, right? It's sort of a shift in

00:54:00.760 --> 00:54:06.800
type of education and type of mindset where it

00:54:06.800 --> 00:54:10.420
may be actually going back to eras of hundreds

00:54:10.420 --> 00:54:13.079
of years ago where you didn't have big conglomerate

00:54:13.079 --> 00:54:16.179
employers except for maybe the government or,

00:54:16.179 --> 00:54:18.860
you know, armies and people like that where you

00:54:18.860 --> 00:54:21.630
have sort of lots of small artisans and everyone

00:54:21.630 --> 00:54:26.409
has got their own sort of advantage and or sort

00:54:26.409 --> 00:54:30.170
of specialism too but it could be on a bigger

00:54:30.170 --> 00:54:33.929
scale because you know you can distribute your

00:54:33.929 --> 00:54:37.190
products worldwide it used to be if you wrote

00:54:37.190 --> 00:54:40.190
some software you had to find a publisher and

00:54:40.190 --> 00:54:42.389
you'd have to they'd put in a box and put it

00:54:42.389 --> 00:54:45.380
in the shops and Now you can get it to a billion

00:54:45.380 --> 00:54:49.280
people just by uploading it onto one of the phone

00:54:49.280 --> 00:54:52.300
platforms. A billion people, but guess what?

00:54:52.639 --> 00:54:55.460
A million other companies can do that too. So

00:54:55.460 --> 00:54:57.320
everyone can do it, but actually getting the

00:54:57.320 --> 00:55:03.219
person to find things is not as big an issue

00:55:03.219 --> 00:55:05.760
if you actually want it. If you write a book,

00:55:05.940 --> 00:55:10.510
you publish a book, you... It can self -publish

00:55:10.510 --> 00:55:12.570
now. It used to be you got a traditional publishing

00:55:12.570 --> 00:55:14.849
model with lots of publishers who would try and

00:55:14.849 --> 00:55:17.730
get it in the bookstores. And you still have

00:55:17.730 --> 00:55:20.730
those somewhat, but it's now a little bit more

00:55:20.730 --> 00:55:23.409
level playing field where you can just write

00:55:23.409 --> 00:55:28.550
your book and stick it on the Amazon store for

00:55:28.550 --> 00:55:35.010
people to use. The concept of digital reality

00:55:35.010 --> 00:55:38.210
versus physical reality is very interesting.

00:55:38.800 --> 00:55:43.360
from a sense of what is truth and what is not

00:55:43.360 --> 00:55:49.239
true or what is falsehood. We can prove physical

00:55:49.239 --> 00:55:51.940
reality to be true or not true by various things.

00:55:51.960 --> 00:55:54.199
And maybe a couple examples is did this tree

00:55:54.199 --> 00:55:57.619
fall? Well, was there a tree there before and

00:55:57.619 --> 00:56:01.500
did it fall? You can see it fell. If it's fallen

00:56:01.500 --> 00:56:03.900
there currently, even if it's not fallen currently,

00:56:04.119 --> 00:56:07.650
maybe. There's people saw a tree there, there's

00:56:07.650 --> 00:56:10.949
evidence in the soil, there's roots. There are

00:56:10.949 --> 00:56:15.989
things that you can go back in time and prove

00:56:15.989 --> 00:56:20.690
beyond a shadow of a doubt. And I use that phrase

00:56:20.690 --> 00:56:24.170
as much as we can, that this happened in physical

00:56:24.170 --> 00:56:28.650
reality, or this is happening right now. Digital

00:56:28.650 --> 00:56:34.300
reality is very different. without going into

00:56:34.300 --> 00:56:36.579
blockchain perhaps and that technology hasn't

00:56:36.579 --> 00:56:38.840
been adopted. So it's not part of our digital

00:56:38.840 --> 00:56:44.340
reality at scale right now. There is a worry

00:56:44.340 --> 00:56:50.860
that AI will say make a fake study to sell a

00:56:50.860 --> 00:56:55.059
placebo medication and maybe even make a fake

00:56:55.059 --> 00:56:59.500
journal. And as long as everything lives digitally,

00:56:59.900 --> 00:57:02.840
AI can write or we can digitally alter the truth.

00:57:03.900 --> 00:57:06.360
Before we couldn't because we did not have the

00:57:06.360 --> 00:57:09.659
technology to make videos realistic, audios realistic,

00:57:10.119 --> 00:57:12.920
but now we can have a video of someone doing

00:57:12.920 --> 00:57:19.159
something from 50 years ago and punish them for

00:57:19.159 --> 00:57:21.320
a crime and then to extrapolate that you can

00:57:21.320 --> 00:57:24.460
get into this minority report scenario where

00:57:24.460 --> 00:57:27.039
you're predicting crimes that are actually made

00:57:27.039 --> 00:57:30.360
up by AI. because you want someone behind bars

00:57:30.360 --> 00:57:34.000
because maybe, you know, maybe they work for

00:57:34.000 --> 00:57:38.360
Facebook and you're Google, right? And there's

00:57:38.360 --> 00:57:40.159
a world where companies rule the world. They

00:57:40.159 --> 00:57:44.199
also have the ability to change our reality,

00:57:44.460 --> 00:57:48.820
both the past, the present, and the future. How

00:57:48.820 --> 00:57:51.099
do you kind of think about that? Are we giving

00:57:51.099 --> 00:57:54.179
AI too much power? You know, one of my clinics

00:57:54.179 --> 00:57:57.980
still uses paper and pen. And maybe we should

00:57:57.980 --> 00:58:00.579
keep it that way. At least there's proof that

00:58:00.579 --> 00:58:03.079
this is what happened in this encounter. And

00:58:03.079 --> 00:58:06.159
then there's no, there's no way to alter that.

00:58:07.139 --> 00:58:11.519
Um, and you can, yeah. Yeah. So we're going to

00:58:11.519 --> 00:58:15.119
be entering a world and we're a third of the

00:58:15.119 --> 00:58:18.559
way in that world already where anything digital,

00:58:18.760 --> 00:58:21.699
you're actually not going to believe that this

00:58:21.699 --> 00:58:25.320
is going to be like that. So fine. Yeah. AI can

00:58:25.320 --> 00:58:28.940
fake something. You can fake something you're

00:58:28.940 --> 00:58:33.900
going to get back to the world of endorsed curated

00:58:33.900 --> 00:58:38.239
curators either by professions Where you say

00:58:38.239 --> 00:58:42.079
well I can go to the AI doctor But who wrote

00:58:42.079 --> 00:58:45.440
who's behind this AI doctor? So that's where

00:58:45.440 --> 00:58:49.219
a real doctor may still have a role You're going

00:58:49.219 --> 00:58:54.360
to get to the level where Maybe you need to buy

00:58:54.360 --> 00:58:59.460
airline stocks, hotel stocks, because even DocuSign,

00:58:59.579 --> 00:59:01.579
even a video call, we won't believe anymore.

00:59:02.219 --> 00:59:06.219
We actually have to physically meet you, talk

00:59:06.219 --> 00:59:10.400
to you, shake your hand in the flesh, and see

00:59:10.400 --> 00:59:15.260
you sign with ink on a piece of paper to know

00:59:15.260 --> 00:59:19.760
we can get the deal done, to have the physical...

00:59:21.599 --> 00:59:30.360
ability. So anything digital will have its, you

00:59:30.360 --> 00:59:31.900
know, so you're going to have to, this is where

00:59:31.900 --> 00:59:34.539
like the New York Times or the newspapers who

00:59:34.539 --> 00:59:37.579
went out of business or got diminished over the

00:59:37.579 --> 00:59:43.559
last 40 years may come back with a play where

00:59:43.559 --> 00:59:47.199
we know, I see something on the internet, on

00:59:47.199 --> 00:59:53.869
Twitter, on Meta or what have you It's not curated

00:59:53.869 --> 00:59:57.510
could be anybody But if it's the New York Times

00:59:57.510 --> 01:00:01.230
website Okay, I might agree or disagree with

01:00:01.230 --> 01:00:03.710
bits of the New York Times, but at least I know

01:00:03.710 --> 01:00:10.510
it's them right and Therefore these curators

01:00:10.510 --> 01:00:14.869
are going to come up and Their job is to stop

01:00:14.869 --> 01:00:19.519
themselves being copied and deep -faked of course,

01:00:20.320 --> 01:00:22.199
and there'll be a number of ways they can do

01:00:22.199 --> 01:00:28.079
that. But you're going to see that there's going

01:00:28.079 --> 01:00:31.840
to be actually, ironically, we saw this in when

01:00:31.840 --> 01:00:34.480
computers came about, we thought there'd be no

01:00:34.480 --> 01:00:37.679
paper needed anymore, then the amount of paper

01:00:37.679 --> 01:00:39.340
would be reduced. In fact, the amount of paper

01:00:39.340 --> 01:00:42.440
went up. and maybe this is what's going to happen

01:00:42.440 --> 01:00:44.320
with AI we think well actually everything's going

01:00:44.320 --> 01:00:47.260
to be digital now we don't need to do anything

01:00:47.260 --> 01:00:49.619
meet anyone anymore it will just do all the work

01:00:49.619 --> 01:00:52.699
for us but actually maybe we'll need actually

01:00:52.699 --> 01:00:57.539
more human bonding as a result of this you know

01:00:57.539 --> 01:01:01.179
we keep complaining about teenagers not just

01:01:01.179 --> 01:01:03.900
teenagers even adults now glued to their phones

01:01:05.380 --> 01:01:08.900
But if you see AI doing more and more stuff,

01:01:09.659 --> 01:01:12.500
as it becomes more functional, but then if you

01:01:12.500 --> 01:01:15.000
actually have to do a transaction, if you do

01:01:15.000 --> 01:01:19.019
a contract, maybe that'll increase human person

01:01:19.019 --> 01:01:23.780
-to -person communication. Also, digital's just

01:01:23.780 --> 01:01:27.000
boring. It's much more fun to have a cup of coffee

01:01:27.000 --> 01:01:29.940
with you than you have even this Zoom call. It'd

01:01:29.940 --> 01:01:35.599
be more fun to do it in person than to... have

01:01:35.599 --> 01:01:37.780
a sort of email, there's a hierarchy of, you

01:01:37.780 --> 01:01:41.940
know, texting, email, video call, also phone

01:01:41.940 --> 01:01:45.239
call, video call, and then in person, right?

01:01:45.420 --> 01:01:47.039
So in person, you say, well, I haven't got time

01:01:47.039 --> 01:01:50.500
to go and meet every single person one at a time,

01:01:51.079 --> 01:01:54.159
but can we meet them in scale, which is where

01:01:54.159 --> 01:01:58.059
you do a podcast in this kind of issue and have

01:01:58.059 --> 01:02:04.469
sensible interactive discussion. As part of what

01:02:04.469 --> 01:02:08.909
you do right now, you invest in startups. Tell

01:02:08.909 --> 01:02:14.429
me a bit about how do you think about structure

01:02:14.429 --> 01:02:19.190
versus intuition? How do you think about a purely

01:02:19.190 --> 01:02:22.650
correlation -based strategy? And you know, maybe

01:02:22.650 --> 01:02:25.309
we can go back to the Rentech model of investing

01:02:25.309 --> 01:02:29.469
where I think my audience probably knows this

01:02:29.469 --> 01:02:32.030
already, but Jim Simons came up with this model

01:02:32.030 --> 01:02:35.190
called the Medallion Fund, and they invested

01:02:35.190 --> 01:02:39.289
purely based on correlation data, and they took

01:02:39.289 --> 01:02:42.190
out the human element. So if the algorithm said

01:02:42.190 --> 01:02:45.610
invest in this startup, you invest in it. There's

01:02:45.610 --> 01:02:49.230
no investment memo. There's nothing else. It's

01:02:49.230 --> 01:02:51.489
just the algorithm says it, and you test the

01:02:51.489 --> 01:02:54.440
algorithm. So I think there's a quantum light

01:02:54.440 --> 01:02:57.000
is a new find by the Revolut founder who's trying

01:02:57.000 --> 01:03:00.320
to do this. What are your thoughts and could

01:03:00.320 --> 01:03:03.039
and you know, there's obvious reasons why it

01:03:03.039 --> 01:03:04.880
can't be because we don't get feedback right

01:03:04.880 --> 01:03:07.880
away. There's just too many unknowns. The public

01:03:07.880 --> 01:03:10.400
markets are very different. You get feedback

01:03:10.400 --> 01:03:12.579
almost instantly if you made the right decision.

01:03:12.719 --> 01:03:15.179
And if you borrow Danny Kahneman's framework

01:03:15.179 --> 01:03:18.059
or where to rely on validity versus intuition.

01:03:18.860 --> 01:03:21.420
our venture value was in on structure versus

01:03:21.420 --> 01:03:26.340
intuition. This is something where, you know,

01:03:26.360 --> 01:03:29.059
you can't have just correlation -based intuition.

01:03:30.039 --> 01:03:32.420
What are your thoughts on structure versus intuition?

01:03:34.340 --> 01:03:38.119
How much of VC is just correlation, investing

01:03:38.119 --> 01:03:41.739
in startups, and how much is intuition? Well,

01:03:41.800 --> 01:03:43.920
first of all, the key word is correlation, not

01:03:43.920 --> 01:03:48.280
causation, right? When I've seen some of these

01:03:48.280 --> 01:03:54.880
quantitative models in VC, often I found really

01:03:54.880 --> 01:03:58.599
they're just following expert investors. They

01:03:58.599 --> 01:04:02.099
end up just investing in things that Sequoia

01:04:02.099 --> 01:04:05.679
invested in, right? But that's usually later.

01:04:08.719 --> 01:04:12.780
So we invest at the very earliest stages. So

01:04:12.780 --> 01:04:15.139
we invest in AI and longevity sites companies.

01:04:15.719 --> 01:04:18.400
and we invest at the very early stages, first

01:04:18.400 --> 01:04:22.760
check off and only check. Probably the riskiest

01:04:22.760 --> 01:04:27.699
point, the risk is to the riskiest point. And

01:04:27.699 --> 01:04:33.139
certainly much of VC is pattern matching recognition.

01:04:33.280 --> 01:04:35.940
You've seen this story before, seen this playbook

01:04:35.940 --> 01:04:39.320
before, you've seen this playbook in one area,

01:04:39.500 --> 01:04:43.239
can it be applied in a different area? um and

01:04:43.239 --> 01:04:45.659
that's often you know they that's sort of the

01:04:45.659 --> 01:04:48.380
uber story like you know the uber of cat feeding

01:04:48.380 --> 01:04:52.559
the uber of dog walking this is like people will

01:04:52.559 --> 01:04:54.800
talk about that you take one business model apply

01:04:54.800 --> 01:05:00.619
it to a different segment uh and uh often that

01:05:00.619 --> 01:05:03.539
can work uh and i'd say that's a correlation

01:05:03.539 --> 01:05:06.880
kind of thing when you're doing deep science

01:05:08.240 --> 01:05:11.480
or moonshot science. And venture still plays

01:05:11.480 --> 01:05:15.619
in that, does play in that. That's almost the

01:05:15.619 --> 01:05:19.619
definition of venture, because if it's building

01:05:19.619 --> 01:05:23.519
another coffee shop, that's not venture. We know

01:05:23.519 --> 01:05:25.599
how the coffee shop economics, we know that people

01:05:25.599 --> 01:05:28.800
wanna drink coffee, we know what a successful

01:05:28.800 --> 01:05:33.179
cafe looks like, we just build it. Location is

01:05:33.179 --> 01:05:35.760
probably a big impact in coffee shop. business

01:05:35.760 --> 01:05:38.400
and maybe put a different model you want to have

01:05:38.400 --> 01:05:40.019
chains of coffee shops and where you put them

01:05:40.019 --> 01:05:41.739
in the right place this is a Starbucks model

01:05:41.739 --> 01:05:46.960
in deep science venture we were I play in the

01:05:46.960 --> 01:05:49.739
science often know a lot of investors will say

01:05:49.739 --> 01:05:51.559
well I don't want to invest in it because I don't

01:05:51.559 --> 01:05:54.579
understand it well guess what no one understands

01:05:54.579 --> 01:05:56.699
it that's why it's called deep science if it

01:05:56.699 --> 01:06:00.139
was if it was just if it was science and people

01:06:00.139 --> 01:06:03.260
understood they just call it science if it's

01:06:03.260 --> 01:06:06.599
deep science no one understands it so you're

01:06:06.599 --> 01:06:10.739
going to have to roll your sleeves up and get

01:06:10.739 --> 01:06:13.179
the intuition first of all so you will be intuition

01:06:13.179 --> 01:06:18.880
you know is there a there there uh to think about

01:06:18.880 --> 01:06:23.460
and to play in that area and are you willing

01:06:23.460 --> 01:06:25.860
to spend the time as an investor to roll your

01:06:25.860 --> 01:06:30.639
sleeves up to understand what the venture is

01:06:30.639 --> 01:06:36.730
about now the other view is don't bet on the

01:06:36.730 --> 01:06:42.090
horses, but bet on the jockey instead. Right,

01:06:42.170 --> 01:06:44.469
so you just assume the jockey has chosen the

01:06:44.469 --> 01:06:49.010
right horse, chosen the right race to run in,

01:06:49.369 --> 01:06:54.809
and that can work too. So some people will invest

01:06:54.809 --> 01:07:01.030
in a company. So we're investors, but we're also

01:07:01.030 --> 01:07:07.090
inventors. I'm an inventor. Now, one of my most

01:07:07.090 --> 01:07:12.429
interesting ideas to work on a moonshot is a

01:07:12.429 --> 01:07:17.329
vaccine. A vaccine for what, you may ask? A vaccine

01:07:17.329 --> 01:07:22.349
for aging. Wait, how does that work? And who's

01:07:22.349 --> 01:07:26.309
crazy enough to even try that, right? Yeah. And

01:07:26.309 --> 01:07:29.130
well, maybe Ron John's one of those people where

01:07:29.130 --> 01:07:34.510
when in 1983, he was working on a machine that

01:07:34.510 --> 01:07:38.530
could transcribe speech. This is 1983. We said

01:07:38.530 --> 01:07:40.469
we're going to make a machine that can understand

01:07:40.469 --> 01:07:46.130
speech. And that concept at that point was only

01:07:46.130 --> 01:07:50.969
seen in science fiction. Let's go deeper on the

01:07:50.969 --> 01:07:53.989
vaccine for aging. Tell me a little bit more

01:07:53.989 --> 01:07:56.789
about how you're thinking about that. How do

01:07:56.789 --> 01:07:58.730
you think about aging? I'm assuming there are

01:07:58.730 --> 01:08:01.469
some parts of aging that are beneficial for us

01:08:01.469 --> 01:08:05.369
and some parts that aren't. In a lot of ways,

01:08:06.110 --> 01:08:09.670
the memories we form or brain, if you want to

01:08:09.670 --> 01:08:12.590
call it aging to an extent, is good. We want

01:08:12.590 --> 01:08:14.550
to be wiser, smarter, more intelligent, make

01:08:14.550 --> 01:08:17.649
better decisions, not be as driven by our emotions

01:08:17.649 --> 01:08:20.770
to an extent. especially when the leaders are

01:08:20.770 --> 01:08:24.869
straight, but bodily aging beyond a certain point,

01:08:24.949 --> 01:08:29.029
we want to stop. How do you think about aging?

01:08:29.090 --> 01:08:31.729
How do you break it down? And how do you kind

01:08:31.729 --> 01:08:36.010
of control to only target the bad parts of aging

01:08:36.010 --> 01:08:41.170
without the good parts? Exactly correct. So aging

01:08:41.170 --> 01:08:44.829
is not all bad. No, we get wiser. We actually

01:08:44.829 --> 01:08:49.399
don't get as reactive as we are when you're younger

01:08:49.399 --> 01:08:53.699
we don't have no dollar reactions to nickel problems

01:08:53.699 --> 01:08:57.020
you know younger people often get upset about

01:08:57.020 --> 01:08:59.500
simpler things and as you get older you've seen

01:08:59.500 --> 01:09:04.979
it all before and maybe a bit calmer and we just

01:09:04.979 --> 01:09:07.119
know more we just know more as each year you

01:09:07.119 --> 01:09:08.920
know more you know more people you know more

01:09:08.920 --> 01:09:12.439
things and then you want to protect your brain

01:09:12.439 --> 01:09:16.310
from neurodegenerative diseases. So one thing

01:09:16.310 --> 01:09:19.869
about aging, as the way we look at it, at Agemica,

01:09:19.970 --> 01:09:24.069
which is the company that is trying to do an

01:09:24.069 --> 01:09:29.250
aging vaccine, that's A -G -E -M -I -C -A, is

01:09:29.250 --> 01:09:32.909
that there are many diseases that are age -related

01:09:32.909 --> 01:09:36.590
that increase in prevalence as you get older.

01:09:37.960 --> 01:09:41.899
An aging concept is almost opposite to another

01:09:41.899 --> 01:09:46.359
concept known as personalized medicine. Right,

01:09:46.439 --> 01:09:49.000
so in aging we're trying to find solutions that

01:09:49.000 --> 01:09:53.439
fix lots of things all at once. Personalized

01:09:53.439 --> 01:09:56.800
medicine is often trying to fix one thing that

01:09:56.800 --> 01:10:01.460
only affects you. Right, so they do sort of overlap

01:10:01.460 --> 01:10:04.000
as well because you can sort of scale personalized

01:10:04.000 --> 01:10:07.460
medicine ideas. But the way we look at aging

01:10:07.460 --> 01:10:13.500
is think of it as clusters of diseases. So three

01:10:13.500 --> 01:10:19.100
big clusters are cardiovascular, the number one

01:10:19.100 --> 01:10:24.619
killer. Second one is cancer. And the third one

01:10:24.619 --> 01:10:27.739
is neurodegenerative. So if we can solve those

01:10:27.739 --> 01:10:31.810
three, that will give you. very big chunk of

01:10:31.810 --> 01:10:34.829
a lot of age -related disease and they actually

01:10:34.829 --> 01:10:39.369
are correlated as well if you solve one and then

01:10:39.369 --> 01:10:42.890
the others improve as well. And what we want

01:10:42.890 --> 01:10:46.789
to do is use the power of the tools of the day

01:10:46.789 --> 01:10:49.810
which are different the tools of even five years

01:10:49.810 --> 01:10:56.109
ago. Can we protect proteins from being disrupted

01:10:56.109 --> 01:11:01.989
and turned into cancer cells? Can we sort of

01:11:01.989 --> 01:11:04.229
realize that the central dogma theory that we

01:11:04.229 --> 01:11:09.289
all have DNA, what's amazing is the DNA is the

01:11:09.289 --> 01:11:11.949
same in every single cell of ours, whether it's

01:11:11.949 --> 01:11:15.390
a tongue cell or a stomach cell, and DNA turns

01:11:15.390 --> 01:11:19.989
into RNA, RNA creates proteins, and the proteins

01:11:19.989 --> 01:11:23.689
tell ourselves what to do. And then when we get

01:11:23.689 --> 01:11:28.479
older, that regulation seems to disrupt a little

01:11:28.479 --> 01:11:34.880
bit? Can we stop that happening? Can we program

01:11:34.880 --> 01:11:39.859
peptides to protect proteins from turning into

01:11:39.859 --> 01:11:44.939
cancerous but not turning our normal cells into

01:11:44.939 --> 01:11:48.579
disruptive components at the same time? So how

01:11:48.579 --> 01:11:52.020
do you sort of kill bad cells without killing

01:11:52.020 --> 01:11:57.000
normal cells? And with AI, you have a new tool

01:11:57.000 --> 01:11:59.060
available to you. So that's what we're trying

01:11:59.060 --> 01:12:02.960
to do at Aegemica. And we think we have a prototype

01:12:02.960 --> 01:12:07.760
for an aging vaccine, an mRNA aging vaccine.

01:12:07.899 --> 01:12:10.779
We think we can solve, at this point, about 30

01:12:10.779 --> 01:12:14.140
cancers all at the same time. So a pan -cancer

01:12:14.140 --> 01:12:17.279
vaccine. Think about it cluster by cluster. And

01:12:17.279 --> 01:12:19.560
then thinking about rinsing and repeating, taking

01:12:19.560 --> 01:12:22.619
the same idea and use the same technique for

01:12:22.619 --> 01:12:26.659
the other clusters of diseases. And aging, if

01:12:26.659 --> 01:12:29.720
you can solve even big chunks of it, all of a

01:12:29.720 --> 01:12:35.180
sudden, society's medical problems go away. All

01:12:35.180 --> 01:12:37.239
these problems about not enough doctors, not

01:12:37.239 --> 01:12:40.619
enough nurses, paying $100 ,000 for a cancer

01:12:40.619 --> 01:12:43.439
treatment. Well, if you don't get cancer, you

01:12:43.439 --> 01:12:46.300
don't need to pay for it. If you don't get cancer,

01:12:46.380 --> 01:12:50.109
you don't need to see the doctor. You know, nature's

01:12:50.109 --> 01:12:51.829
come out with a study. If you can solve aging,

01:12:51.970 --> 01:12:58.470
it's a $38 trillion impact. So, you know, think

01:12:58.470 --> 01:13:01.310
of a big idea and thinking of the tools available

01:13:01.310 --> 01:13:05.250
to you and then jumping into the space is one

01:13:05.250 --> 01:13:07.130
of the ideas. If you don't jump into the space,

01:13:07.329 --> 01:13:11.380
well, it won't happen. So what space do you want

01:13:11.380 --> 01:13:13.500
to jump into? So that's something in space and

01:13:13.500 --> 01:13:16.500
then you put some money to work at it in it and

01:13:16.500 --> 01:13:21.000
try and do it step by step. So in the old speech

01:13:21.000 --> 01:13:23.859
recognition days, when I couldn't, I said, I'm

01:13:23.859 --> 01:13:26.199
going to make a machine to transcribe speech.

01:13:26.539 --> 01:13:28.619
So, well, okay, let's break it down. Let's just

01:13:28.619 --> 01:13:31.760
do telephone digits to start off with. And then

01:13:31.760 --> 01:13:34.140
later on, 15, 18 years later, it's on everyone's

01:13:34.140 --> 01:13:37.560
phones. Full speed transcription. So I think

01:13:37.560 --> 01:13:40.899
about aging science. Okay, well, aging is a big

01:13:40.899 --> 01:13:43.060
problem. There's many, many age -related diseases.

01:13:43.859 --> 01:13:46.819
Let's start with cancer. Cancer is a good one

01:13:46.819 --> 01:13:52.159
to look at because it's, as you know, it metastasizes.

01:13:52.680 --> 01:13:57.010
So if you solve one cancer. It's often it's too

01:13:57.010 --> 01:13:59.409
late. You've got another cancer. And so can you

01:13:59.409 --> 01:14:02.829
solve groups of diseases at the same time? And

01:14:02.829 --> 01:14:05.189
so that was a good model to look at. And then

01:14:05.189 --> 01:14:08.789
can we solve that model in the other other models?

01:14:10.630 --> 01:14:13.550
So there we have it. So that's that's the major

01:14:13.550 --> 01:14:17.949
working on. And sometimes I say I encourage people,

01:14:17.970 --> 01:14:20.250
Richard, what's your big idea? That's my big

01:14:20.250 --> 01:14:23.569
idea. The loads of big ideas to work on. And

01:14:23.569 --> 01:14:27.000
then think about how the big idea can be worked

01:14:27.000 --> 01:14:30.720
on. And instead of saying giving up before you

01:14:30.720 --> 01:14:32.840
even start saying, well, how do we break the

01:14:32.840 --> 01:14:34.880
problem down? That's the engineer in becoming.

01:14:35.220 --> 01:14:37.819
Now I'm an engineer where we will be pragmatic.

01:14:38.020 --> 01:14:40.819
And so well, how do we break the problem down?

01:14:42.420 --> 01:14:46.979
Yeah, I think from a medicine, care delivery

01:14:46.979 --> 01:14:50.279
perspective, the problems aren't technical, the

01:14:50.279 --> 01:14:54.179
problems are regulatory and reimbursement. We

01:14:54.179 --> 01:14:57.399
can create an AI physician that's completely

01:14:57.399 --> 01:15:00.420
autonomous for specific verticals from a technical

01:15:00.420 --> 01:15:04.720
perspective tomorrow. You know, for to refill

01:15:04.720 --> 01:15:06.859
birth control, blood pressure medications. These

01:15:06.859 --> 01:15:13.380
are very, fairly straightforward clinical decision

01:15:13.380 --> 01:15:15.239
trees. Some of them are more robust than others,

01:15:15.279 --> 01:15:17.880
but you know, I can probably write a clinical

01:15:17.880 --> 01:15:20.819
decision tree for a blood pressure refill in

01:15:20.819 --> 01:15:23.760
a day or two. And it might be a comprehensive,

01:15:24.039 --> 01:15:26.739
but I can do it. I'm sure someone can code it.

01:15:27.659 --> 01:15:30.840
But no state medical board is going to give that

01:15:30.840 --> 01:15:32.819
clinical decision tree a license to actually

01:15:32.819 --> 01:15:37.000
refill the birth control. And no payers are reimbursed

01:15:37.000 --> 01:15:41.439
today. So the question becomes, do I build it

01:15:41.439 --> 01:15:47.640
now and wait? Because venture, and building a

01:15:47.640 --> 01:15:51.939
company, you have to pay employees. there's a

01:15:51.939 --> 01:15:55.739
time, there's a stopwatch that starts when I

01:15:55.739 --> 01:15:59.539
start this. And yeah, like how long do I wait

01:15:59.539 --> 01:16:05.960
before I build this? So last question, Ron, if

01:16:05.960 --> 01:16:10.159
you could go back in time and talk to your 20

01:16:10.159 --> 01:16:12.060
year old self, or maybe if you could go back

01:16:12.060 --> 01:16:15.859
in time 10 years ago, what piece of advice would

01:16:15.859 --> 01:16:19.470
you? Tell 20 year old Ron John and then Ron John

01:16:19.470 --> 01:16:27.550
10 years ago. Yes. So 20 year old Ron John, I

01:16:27.550 --> 01:16:34.850
think is have a thick skinned expect rejection

01:16:34.850 --> 01:16:41.289
and show up 99 % of life is just showing up.

01:16:41.409 --> 01:16:43.909
So all you have to do, you know, I've been rejected

01:16:43.909 --> 01:16:48.829
so many times. for so many things, but over time

01:16:48.829 --> 01:16:50.810
you get thicker, the skin got thicker and thicker

01:16:50.810 --> 01:16:52.289
and thicker, didn't worry about it, but in the

01:16:52.289 --> 01:16:55.430
early days it was quite unnerving when you got

01:16:55.430 --> 01:16:59.350
rejected for something, but apply for things

01:16:59.350 --> 01:17:01.590
and show up to things, talk to people, don't

01:17:01.590 --> 01:17:05.189
be afraid, go out of your comfort zone. 10 years

01:17:05.189 --> 01:17:08.840
ago, I think go out of your comfort zone is still

01:17:08.840 --> 01:17:10.739
there. I think I've got used to being rejected,

01:17:10.819 --> 01:17:13.039
so not a problem. In fact, the more you got rejected,

01:17:13.060 --> 01:17:14.840
the more you wanted to do it, actually. I think

01:17:14.840 --> 01:17:17.640
that's almost a positive sign. The more people

01:17:17.640 --> 01:17:19.720
say you can't do it, the more you actually say,

01:17:19.899 --> 01:17:21.739
well, you can do it. You can do it, and you are

01:17:21.739 --> 01:17:30.600
going to do it. But try and be also as humble

01:17:30.600 --> 01:17:34.529
as you can. I think I... sort of rolled into

01:17:34.529 --> 01:17:41.609
it in trying to be factual and be available to

01:17:41.609 --> 01:17:48.270
people and just have no airs and graces. I think

01:17:48.270 --> 01:17:52.050
that's probably general theme is just be accessible

01:17:52.050 --> 01:17:54.409
if someone wants to talk to you, talk to them

01:17:54.409 --> 01:18:01.520
and be able to Think bigger, probably also think

01:18:01.520 --> 01:18:04.060
bigger. About 10 years ago, I'd say think bigger.

01:18:04.819 --> 01:18:08.420
So I'm thinking big now. And looking back, I

01:18:08.420 --> 01:18:10.899
was thinking big, I guess, 20, 30 years ago,

01:18:10.920 --> 01:18:16.779
but I didn't feel like I was, right? So I think

01:18:16.779 --> 01:18:18.920
there's lots and lots of big ideas and lots of

01:18:18.920 --> 01:18:21.399
now role models, people who have done big ideas.

01:18:22.079 --> 01:18:24.779
And so you think, well, why can't I? Why can't

01:18:24.779 --> 01:18:31.539
you? The resources now available to people. That's

01:18:31.539 --> 01:18:34.420
great advice. Yeah. Don't be afraid of rejection

01:18:34.420 --> 01:18:36.880
and think bigger. Thanks so much for joining

01:18:36.880 --> 01:18:39.680
me today. Thank you for having me. Thank you

01:18:39.680 --> 01:18:40.420
for having me, Richard.